Can you predict the future impact of AI? One cannot connect the dots looking forward; you connect them looking backward and then apply mental models to guesstimate future directions.

Let’s try a thought experiment. Travel back with me to 1999/2000. Everyone knew the internet would change everything, but nobody could predict how and who the winners would be.

Nobody imagined a company that would become a verb in the dictionary, used daily by billions. Google didn’t exist. Today, “googling” is as natural as breathing.

Back then:

Google, Facebook, and Tesla weren’t even around.

Nvidia’s market cap was just $1.4 billion.

Amazon nearly died—its market cap collapsed from $25 billion to $2 billion.

Steve Jobs broke his own rules and struck a lifeline deal with Microsoft, securing Office for Mac to keep Apple alive.

Microsoft itself missed the internet revolution and had to play catch-up.

Cisco was the Nvidia of its day: $569 billion market cap in March 2000. Twenty-five years later? $250 billion.

The internet took 20+ years to deliver real productivity gains and crown its winners.

AI in 2025 is at the same point the internet was in 2000. It will change everything we know, but it is impossible to predict the winners and losers by looking forward.

There will be false starts and plenty of noise.

And like learning to ride a bicycle, you don’t master it by reading a book or watching TikToks.

You learn by doing it.

Actually, by not doing it. You learn by doing it wrong, by falling off, by getting back on, by doing it again.

So what will the impact be?

Global market capitalization has more than quadrupled in the last 25 years—from $30 trillion in 2000 to $135 trillion in 2025, albeit not in a straight line.

History does not repeat, but it often rhymes. Take your best guess: what will global market cap be in 2050?

If you already know the winners, please drop me a note (and maybe your lottery numbers too)

Take it easy until next time.

Blogging is something I enjoy, and I share my thoughts on my blog most weekends.

Read all my “Notes to Self” at view all blogs.